Friend Who Earns 300,000 Yuan Shares His Thoughts on Avoiding Collapse

July 31, 2025, 12:02 a.m. Essays

For several years, many of my friends have frequently mentioned a word, ‘risk resilience.’

They each lamented that in middle age, the most important ability wasn’t how much money they earned, how much knowledge they possessed, or how many connections they had, but the ability to avoid a complete collapse.

A line from the movie ‘Bruce Almighty,’Recently, this line has been circling in my mind.

‘If you get hit by a bullet, the bullet has already gone out.’”

To survive, the only way is to discover the crisis early and quickly evade it.

A technical director friend of mine, 35 years old, once interviewed a young project manager.

It was a complete contrast.

That project manager had only worked for five or six years, but he had a lot of experience. Different development frameworks, different project technical characteristics, potential problems, and preparation solutions… he spoke logically and confidently, like a seasoned professional.

My friend was quite embarrassed,Because he couldn’t answer any valuable technical questions himself. He was in charge of three old systems, and every month he made some optimization functions or bug fixes. Starting from several years ago, the business volume gradually decreased. Fortunately, at the end of the year, his boss helped him get an opportunity to develop a new product, which obtained an internal ‘incubation fund’, thus saving his annual salary of 300,000 that was fully paid.

‘It’s not going to be this lucky in the future.’, he said calmly.

‘As for the old systems, the business volume will only decrease, and this year’s company merger is already a signal. I don’t have much technical income, and my income is also relatively high, so it’s not a way to go.’

I thought he was finished saying this.

But to my surprise, not long after, I heard that he decided to quit and join a startup company run by a classmate.

Even more surprisingly:

His basic salary was 8,000 yuan per month, and his main income depended on monthly performance bonuses and year-end dividends.Everyone was both worried and impressed by his courage and determination.

But what I admired most was his

His keen sense.

He keenly smelled the crisis beneath the surface.

Don’t think it’s easy for many people to detect the danger approaching, they will hesitate and be bound by various reasons, until the bullet flies in front of them.

You must have heard this familiar saying: ‘The last straw that breaks the camel’s back.’

Our attention is often attracted by the last straw, but in fact, the straw weighs so little, how can it cause any harm?

The real camel was killed by 99.9% of the straw.

Most unfortunate things are the accumulation of things, not a 100% unexpected event. However, people tend to call them ‘accidents.’

In 2007, American writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb published ‘Black Swan,’ which revealed the great influence of unforeseen events. Once a black swan appears, it will subvert people’s unshakable beliefs.

Ten years later, the theory of ‘gray rhinoceros’ gained renewed attention worldwide.

Gray rhinoceros is a large and slow-moving animal, it looks harmless at a glance, but if it rushes towards you, it is almost impossible to escape.

Compared to the ‘low probability and great impact’ of black swans, the ‘high probability and great impact’ of gray rhinoceros is more likely to cause a huge impact on ordinary people.

There are countless examples.

A colleague of mine has received many calls from banks to process ETC applications. Even the customer manager who had been silent on WeChat for years also asked him to apply for ETC.

However, high-speed toll stations have been decreasing in recent years.

The hottest report is the cancellation of road tolls in Tangshan City, after which a middle-aged aunt still insisted on requesting the government to solve her employment problems: ‘I’ve spent 36 years paying tolls, now I have no work.’

But the real crisis didn’t start with the cancellation of toll booths,

It started ten years ago.

Engineering has a principle called ‘Hain’s Law,’ which says that for every serious accident, there are 29 minor accidents and 300 potential accidents and 1000 hidden dangers, as well as 1000 accidents.

The occurrence of accidents is the result of the accumulation of quantity, but people ignore the signals and warnings given by minor accidents, and they don't take action, or even take it for granted and only wake up when the major disaster is imminent.

People are prone to illusion.

Seeing that other companies are laying off employees, they think it might not happen to them;

Seeing that other industries are depressed, they think ‘I’m lucky that my industry is still doing well.’;

Seeing stocks being trapped, they think they might rise in the future.

In the long-term evasion mentality, numerous small factors finally accumulated to form a major disaster.
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Taiwanese entrepreneur Wang Yung-tse proposed the ‘Ice Cream Philosophy’ in 1954, when he founded Tai-Sin Company, he encountered a period of market downturn. At that time, the demand for polyethylene compound resin in Taiwan was very small, and Japan provided cheap products to many Taiwanese processing plants, which led to Tai-Sin’s initial situation of being mocked as ‘laboratory scale.’
Under such unfavorable circumstances, Wang Yung-tse made a surprising decision:

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Expand production.

Create the market in difficult circumstances, and reduce costs by increasing production to attract customers.

After that, Tai-Sin’s production gradually expanded six times, and related businesses also improved, and finally stood firm in the industry.

Everyone can see that the difference is not the more luck they have, but how they grasp the opportunities.

We need to be able to see through the seemingly peaceful darkness, and start early to reach the ideal destination.

I understand that security is a constant concern for humans. People always like to stay in familiar places. But the road in front of us is sometimes becoming narrower, not because of age or lack of intelligence,But we ignore the unfavorable signs, these small elements eventually accumulate into a major disaster.

In this world, there are not necessarily more good luck, but how you see it.

Michael O’Hara’s strategy in ‘Gray Rhinoceros: How to Manage Probable Crises’ is to become a person who discovers and controls gray rhinoceros risk.